North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast
Forecast Summary: Monday, March 19
Regional Weather - Monday, March 19 - (Southeast U.S. / eastern Gulf of Mexico): High pressure centered off the NC coast will control the weather in the Southeast early this week. A long easterly fetch off the Atlantic may cause a shower or two in southern FL or along the FL east coast. A cold front moving toward the region from the north will bring a chance of showers to portions of NC / TN on Tuesday. Otherwise, a dry period is in store for the Southeast / eastern Gulf with sunny to partly cloudy skies. Highs in the 60's and 70's, lows from the 40's to low 60's.
Outlook: Trajetories out of western Cuba move west the next two days under unfavorable conditions. Low Risk to tobacco plants in NC Monday and Tuesday.
An additional note .... a re-check of Wednesday's transport event (14 March) from western Cuba indicates that the event may have extended farther north and east than anticipated. Potential impacts to U.S. interests would still have been quite low due to death of airborne spores and washout over the Gulf. However, it may be advisable for growers in the Southeast to keep a closer watch on their plants during the next week.
*** 21 March edit: The 're-check' of Wednesday's event refers to an actual re-run of this event with updated / archived weather data, and not a simple re-evaluation of the information available at the time of the original forecast. ***
TK