Cucurbit Tobacco Soybean

24 March 2006

North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast


Date Issued: 24 March 2006
Disease location(s): Western Cuba
Trajectory Start: Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Forecaster: MM

Regional weather: Friday, March 24 - Eastern Gulf of Mexico / southeast U.S.: High and low pressure systems, to the northwest and north east respectively, will generate northerly flow through the weekend over the western Caribbean. There will be some light precipitation along a week and slow moving frontal area.

Trajectory weather: The skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. The high temperature will be in the 80s with a low in the 70s.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat ***

Friday, Saturday, and Sunday: The trajectories through the weekend all move southward over the water. Any live spores should either die due to solar exposure or become washed out over the Caribbean waters. The forecast trajectories do not pose any threat to U.S. tobacco production areas. Low Risk to US production areas. Low Risk elsewhere. Please note that the NAPDFC has not received an official report of blue mold in Pinar del Rio to date.

03/24/2006 Pinar del Rio Forecast Trajectory

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