Cucurbit Tobacco Soybean

22 March 2006

North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast


Date Issued: 22 March 2006
Disease location(s): Western Cuba
Trajectory Start: Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Forecaster: MM

Regional weather: Wednesday, March 22 - Eastern Gulf of Mexico / southeast U.S.: A weak frontal area will bring some rain to eastern Cuba by Friday. Otherwise, the weather will be warm and dry.

Trajectory weather: The skies will be partly to mostly cloudy. The high temperature will be in the 80s with a low in the 70s.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat ***

Wednesday and Thursday: The trajectories through the end of the week all carry west and northwest out into the Gulf. Any live spores should either die due to solar exposure or become washed out over the Gulf waters. The forecast trajectories do not pose any threat to U.S. tobacco production areas. Low Risk to US production areas. Low Risk elsewhere. Please note that the NAPDFC has not received an official report of blue mold in Pinar del Rio to date.

03/22/2006 Pinar del Rio Forecast Trajectory

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