Regional weather: Wednesday, June 29 - Western Mexico: Rain is in the forecast for Tepic. Some mid/upper-level instability, along with the influence of tropical depression Bret, will allow for the formation of some storms.

Trajectory weather: Light cloud cover in the morning clearing by midday . It will be dry with highs near 90. Rain will occur in the afternoon. All trajectories oscillate in the sea breeze circulation and stay near the Tepic source.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat ***

Due to the constant solar exposure over the past few weeks and the suspected weak nature of the source, forecast threat and risk level will be reduced from where they would be if this were a full strength active source.

Wednesday and Thursday: Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to occur toward nightfall. The chance for rain is low Wednesday and greater on Thursday. Additionally, rain is far more likely to the south and may not extend as far north as Tepic. Historically, rainfall this time of year in Tepic happens with strong isolated storms that drop a lot of rain in a short period of time in between long dry periods. This does not create a favorable environment for disease development. Mornings should be clear allowing for strong solar exposure. Low Risk to susceptible plants along Wednesday and Thursday's transport event.