North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast
Forecast Summary: Wednesday, June 29
Weather: Tropical moisture is still deep over the southeast US. The high pressure airmass over the Southeast is being displaced by a front to the northwest resulting in more westerly flow. A mid/upper-level high centered over northern Mexico will keep the southern Plains hot and dry. Tropical Depression Bret, along with the influence of various tropical waves, will keep the weather across southern Mexico unsettled.
The Forecast: The trajectories out of Pinar del Rio, Cuba are head westward out to sea. Low Risk from the Pinar del Rio source Wednesday and Thursday. Sky conditions will be unfavorable for spore survival for the trajectories through Thursday out of Tepic, Mexico. Low Risk to production areas from the Tepic source. Sky conditions will be somewhat favorable for disease development, with rain likely for the Tapachula, Mexico trajectories. Moderate Risk to areas near the Tapachula source. If blue mold is present near Uvalde, TX: Widespread spore death is expected due to solar exposure for the Wednesday and Thursday transport events. Low Risk from the Uvalde source.
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