Cucurbit Tobacco Soybean

27 June 2005

North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast


Date Issued: 27 June 2005
Disease location(s): Extreme Southern Mexico (Chiapas State)
Trajectory Start: Tapachula, Mexico
Forecaster: MM

Regional weather: Monday, June 27 - Extreme southern Mexico: Persistent tropical convection is predicted to cover the Yucatan and Southern Mexico regions due to upper-level divergence in the atmosphere and the interaction with approaching tropical waves.

Trajectory weather: Mixed cloud cover with rain and thunderstorms possible later in the afternoon. High of 35Cand a low of 24C.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: ***Moderate Threat***

Monday and Tuesday: The constant threat of clouds, rain, and thunderstorms creates a persistent and favorable environment for disease development. However, the strength of the source is suspect and there is a good chance for the sun to peak through the clouds for brief periods. Moderate risk near the source area. Low Risk otherwise.

06/27/2005 Tapachula Forecast Trajectory

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