Regional weather: Monday, June 27 - Eastern Gulf of Mexico / southeast U.S.: A moist and unsettled pattern is established over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida thanks to an upper-level trough that extends from Tennessee southwest over Louisiana all the way to Mexico. An increase in moisture along with upper-level wind divergence is producing widespread cloudiness and showers south and east of the trough.

Trajectory weather: The skies will be mostly cloudy with rain likely. The high temperature will be in the 80s with a low in the 70s.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat ***

The strength of the source in Pinar del Rio is not specifically known. However, due to the lateness of the season, we expected it to be diminished. Therefore, risk levels will be dropped one level to represent the suspected weakness of the source.

Monday and Tuesday: The trajectories through midweek all carry west out into the Gulf. The trajectories should washout over Cuba with afternoon convection or in the Gulf with developing rains. The forecast trajectories do not pose any threat to U.S. tobacco production areas. Moderate Risk to susceptible crops in extreme western Cuba. Low Risk to US production areas. Low Risk elsewhere.