North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast
Forecast Summary: Monday, June 27
Weather: High pressure is taking control in the South and East. However, large amounts of moisture in the Southeast are leading to widespread cloud formation and scattered thunderstorms. Back-to-back tropical waves and upper-level instability are creating widespread cloud cover and storms over the Gulf of Mexico and Central America.
The Forecast: The trajectories out of Pinar del Rio, Cuba project out to sea and away from land and do not threaten the U.S. Washout over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to occur. Low Risk to U.S. production areas from the Cuban source. Sky conditions will be unfavorable for spore survival for the trajectories through midweek out of Tepic, Mexico. Low Risk to production areas from the Tepic source. Sky conditions will be moderately favorable for disease development, with rain likely for the Tapachula, Mexico trajectories. Moderate Risk to areas near the Tapachula source. Low Risk elsewhere. If blue mold is present near Uvalde, TX: Sky conditions are not favorable for spore survival due to solar exposure. Low Risk from the Uvalde source.
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