Regional weather: Friday, June 24 - Eastern Gulf of Mexico / southeast U.S.: The upper-level low that moved across southern Florida is lifting northward leaving some dry air in its wake. This will make for some relatively drier weather for the eastern Gulf area. Widespread rain will return to the eastern Gulf as tropical convection picks up again over the Yucatan Strait.

Trajectory weather: Warm and sunny with afternoon thunderstorms. High temperatures in the 80s and lows in the 70s.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat ***

The strength of the source in Pinar del Rio is not specifically known. However, due to the lateness of the season, we expected it to be diminished. Therefore, risk levels will be dropped one level to represent the suspected weakness of the source.

Friday and Saturday: Mostly clear skies and only a chance for afternoon thunderstorms create unfavorable conditions for disease development. Low Risk Friday and Saturday. Low Risk to US production areas. Low Risk elsewhere.

Sunday: Rain returns to western Cuba on Sunday creating a favorable environment for disease development. Moderate Risk to susceptible crops in extreme western Cuba. Low Risk to US production areas. Low Risk elsewhere.