North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast
Forecast Summary: Friday, June 24
Weather: High pressure is in place over the southern US while a potential tropical system develops off the Florida coast. Upper-level stability is keeping the Gulf clear and dry for the moment, but things will return to their normal pattern by Sunday. Upper-level instability is triggering convection over the Yucatan and southern mexico and even up into central Mexico.
The Forecast: The trajectories out of Pinar del Rio, Cuba are expected to experience washout over Cuba or the Gulf. Low Risk to US production areas from the Pinar del Rio source. Sky conditions will be somewhat favorable for spore survival for the trajectories through Sunday out of Tepic, Mexico with the forecast calling for rain. Weakly Moderate Risk to production areas from the Tepic source. Sky conditions will be moderately favorable for disease development, with rain likely for the Tapachula, Mexico trajectories. Moderate Risk to areas near the Tapachula source. If blue mold is present near Uvalde, TX: Spore death due to solar exposure is expected. Low Risk to known tobacco production areas.
MM