Regional weather: Wednesday, June 22 - Eastern Gulf of Mexico / southeast U.S.: A low pressure trough currently runs across south Florida to the Yucatan coast. This will bring rain to the eastern Gulf of Mexico, western Cuba, and southern Florida through at least Thursday.

Trajectory weather: The skies will be mostly cloudy with a chance of rain. The high temperature will be in the 80s with a low in the 70s.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat ***

Wednesday and Thursday:

The strength of the source in Pinar del Rio is not specifically known. However, due to the lateness of the season, we expected it to be diminished. Therefore, risk levels will be dropped one level to represent the suspected weakness of the source.

The trajectories through Thursday all carry westward out into the Gulf. The trajectories should washout over Cuba with afternoon convection or in the Gulf with developing rains. The forecast trajectories do not pose any threat to U.S. tobacco production areas. Strongly Moderate Risk to susceptible crops in extreme western Cuba. Low Risk to US production areas. Low Risk elsewhere.