North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast
Forecast Summary: Wednesday, June 22
Weather: High pressure is in place over the southern US while a front pushes south across the Carolinas toward the Gulf Coast. A developing low pressure area brings rain to southern Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level instability is triggering convection over the Yucatan and southern mexico.
The Forecast: The trajectories out of Pinar del Rio, Cuba are head westward out to sea. Low Risk from the Pinar del Rio source Wednesday and Thursday. Sky conditions will be unfavorable for spore survival for the trajectories through Thursday out of Tepic, Mexico. Low Risk to production areas from the Tepic source. Sky conditions will be somewhat favorable for disease development, with rain likely for the Tapachula, Mexico trajectories. Moderate Risk to areas near the Tapachula source. If blue mold is present near Uvalde, TX: Widespread spore death is expected due to solar exposure for the Wednesday and Thursday transport events. Low Risk from the Uvalde source.
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