Cucurbit Tobacco Soybean

20 June 2005

North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast


Date Issued: 20 June 2005
Disease location(s): Unknown
Trajectory Start: Uvalde, Texas
Forecaster: MM

Regional weather: Monday, June 20 - Central and Southern Texas, U.S.: A weak pressure gradient is limiting moisture advection into the region from the Gulf of Mexico which is reducing morning cloud cover. The upper-level ridge over the central US is keeping the forecast dry and cloud free. Thunderstorms are always a possibility this time of year, but the chances of seeing one are very low.

Trajectory weather: It will be mostly clear and hot all day. High temperatures will be near 100. The low overnight will be in the 70s.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat ***

We have no reports of blue mold from southern Texas. We are monitoring trajectories from this region in case any potentially threatening transport episodes arise.

Monday and Tuesday: The trajectories from Uvalde all travel northward away from known production areas. Solar exposure is expected to be sufficient to kill all airborne spores. If blue mold is present: Low Risk to known tobacco production areas. Low Risk otherwise.

06/20/2005 Uvalde Forecast Trajectory

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