North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast
Forecast Summary: Monday, June 20
Weather: A high pressure blocking ridge is in place across the central US. In the east, a deep layered trough sits offshore and crosses southern Florida and goes into the Gulf, bringing rain to southern Florida and the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Upper-level instability is triggering convection over the Yucatan and southern mexico.
The Forecast: The trajectories out of Pinar del Rio, Cuba project out to sea and away from land and do not threaten the U.S. Washout over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to occur. Low Risk to U.S. production areas from the Cuban source. Sky conditions will be unfavorable for spore survival for the trajectories through midweek out of Tepic, Mexico. Low Risk to production areas from the Tepic source. Sky conditions will be moderately favorable for disease development, with rain likely for the Tapachula, Mexico trajectories. Moderate Risk to areas near the Tapachula source. Low Risk elsewhere. If blue mold is present near Uvalde, TX: Sky conditions are not favorable for spore survival due to solar exposure. Low Risk from the Uvalde source.
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