North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast
Forecast Summary: Friday, June 17
Weather: A high pressure blocking ridge is continuing to build across the central US. In the east, a deep layered trough continues to push southward. Its associated cold front extends off the Carolina coast and come inland across northern Florida and the Gulf Coast. High pressure dominates the Gulf and is suppressing precipitation except in the vicinity of the front. Upper-level instability is triggering convection over the Yucatan and southern mexico.
The Forecast: The trajectories out of Pinar del Rio, Cuba are expected to experience washout over Cuba or the Gulf. Low Risk to US production areas from the Pinar del Rio source. Sky conditions will be unfavorable for spore survival for the trajectories through Sunday out of Tepic, Mexico despite the forecast for rain. Low Risk to production areas from the Tepic source. Sky conditions will be moderately favorable for disease development, with rain likely for the Tapachula, Mexico trajectories. Moderate Risk to areas near the Tapachula source. If blue mold is present near Uvalde, TX: Spore death due to solar exposure is expected. Low Risk to known tobacco production areas.
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