Regional weather: Wednesday, June 15 - Extreme southern Mexico: The tropical low pressure system that has developed in the western Caribbean has caused a lull in the tropical convection that has covered the areas recently. It is only expected to be a brief reprieve however and the convection is expected to step back up to its usual intensity for Thursday.

Trajectory weather:Overcast with rain and thunderstorms possible later in the afternoon. High of 36C and a low of 24C.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat ***

Wednesday and Thursday: The strength of the source in Tapachula is not specifically known. but due to the lateness of the season, we expected it to be diminished. Therefore, risk levels will be dropped one level to represent the suspected weakness of the source.

The constant threat of clouds, rain, and thunderstorms creates a persistent and favorable environment for disease development. However, the strength of the source is suspect and there is a chance for the sun to peak through the clouds for brief or even extended periods. Moderate risk near the source area for Wednesday and Thursday and along the first 8 hours of the trajectory path for Wednesday. Low Risk otherwise.