North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast
Forecast Summary: Monday, June 13
Weather: High pressure is in control of the weather over the Gulf in the Wake of Tropical Storm Arlene. Tropical convection is still widespread over the southern Mexico region, occasionally spreading eastward to affect the Western Caribbean. Otherwise, the weather is quiet near out blue mold forecasting locations.
The Forecast: The trajectories out of Pinar del Rio, Cuba project out to sea and away from land and do not threaten the U.S. Low Risk to U.S. production areas from the Cuban source. Sky conditions will be unfavorable for spore survival for the trajectories through midweek out of Tepic, Mexico. Low Risk to production areas from the Tepic source. Sky conditions will be highly favorable for disease development, with rain likely for the Tapachula, Mexico trajectories. There will be a good chance for solar exposure Monday. Moderate Risk to production areas near the Tapachula Source Monday. High Risk to production areas near the Tapachula Source Tuesday. Low Risk elsewhere. If blue mold is present near Uvalde, TX: Sky conditions are not favorable for spore survival due to solar exposure. Low Risk from the Uvalde source.
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