North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast
Forecast Summary: Friday, June 10
Weather: Tropical Storm Arlene will make its presence felt in the Southeast this weekend. Strong wind and widespread rain is expected for the Gulf Coast states as well as Cuba which has already receive a lot of rain from the storm. Outside of the scope of Arlene, the weather patterns remain fairly normal.
The Forecast: The trajectories out of Pinar del Rio, Cuba are expected to experience washout over the Gulf in the wake of Arlene. Low Risk to US production areas from the Pinar del Rio source. Sky conditions will be unfavorable for spore survival for the trajectories through Sunday out of Tepic, Mexico. Low Risk to production areas from the Tepic source. Sky conditions will be moderately favorable for disease development, with rain likely for the Tapachula, Mexico trajectories. Moderate Risk to areas near the Tapachula source. If blue mold is present near Uvalde, TX: Spore death due to solar exposure is expected. Low Risk to known tobacco production areas.
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