North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast
Forecast Summary: Wednesday, June 8
Weather: A developing tropical low pressure system is developing in the western Caribbean. It is expected to slowly move north and bring heavy rain to the eastern Gulf and Cuba. Moisture is still being carried into the Southern Plains from the Gulf of Mexico creating morning clouds. Other than this, skies across the Southern Plains are expected to be clear and dry barring the chance for severe weather in the afternoons.
The Forecast: The trajectories out of Pinar del Rio, Cuba are expected to become wrapped up in the tropical low. Weakly Moderate Risk Wednesday and Thursday near the Pinar del Rio source. Sky conditions will be unfavorable for spore survival for the trajectories through Thursday out of Tepic, Mexico. Low Risk to production areas from the Tepic source. Sky conditions will be highly favorable for disease development, with rain likely for the Tapachula, Mexico trajectories. Strongly Moderate Risk to areas near the Tapachula source. If blue mold is present near Uvalde, TX: Widespread spore death is expected due to solar exposure for the Wednesday and Thursday transport events. Low Risk from the Uvalde source.
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