North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast
Date Issued: 6 June 2005
Disease location(s):
Extreme Southern Mexico (Chiapas State)
Trajectory Start: Tapachula, Mexico
Forecaster: MM
Regional weather: Monday, June 6 - Extreme southern Mexico: A tropical wave has imbedded itself in the normal monsoon circulation spawning widespread showers and thunderstorms across the Yucatan region Monday. Scatter rain and thunderstorms are expected through Tuesday.
Trajectory weather: It will be warm and wet with a high near 34C and a low near 26C. The trajectory will be carried southward along the cost and eventually out to sea
Trajectory confidence: High
OUTLOOK: *** High Threat ***
Monday and Tuesday: Mostly cloudy skies and rain create a favorable environment for live spore transport Monday. Washout will occur very early along the forecast trajectory limiting deposition to sreas very close to the source. High Risk to production areas near the Tapachula Source Monday and Tuesday. Low Risk otherwise.
