Cucurbit Tobacco Soybean

6 June 2005

North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast


Date Issued: 6 June 2005
Disease location(s): Western Cuba
Trajectory Start: Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Forecaster: MM

Regional weather: Monday, June 6 - Eastern Gulf of Mexico / southeast U.S.: A tropical wave over central America and another over the eastern Caribbean are influencing weather patterns that are moving to put a large amount of moisture in the air over and around Cuba. The additional moisture will create instability that will lead to a good chance for thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon.

Trajectory weather: Mostly sunny and dry Monday with a high in the 80s and a few high clouds. Trajectories will be carried westward, offshore into the tropical rains near the Yucatan coast.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat ***

Monday and Tuesday: There will be strong solar exposure and dry weather while the trjectories are over land Monday and Tuesday. Spores that survive over land will be washed out offshore. Low Risk to US production areas.

06/06/2005 Pinar del Rio Forecast Trajectory

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