North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast
Forecast Summary: Monday, June 6
Weather: The weather across the southern US will be hot and humid for at least the first half of this week. A lack of upper level forcing should keep the chances for afternoon thunderstorms low. However, the chance for serious isolated convection remains. A tropical wave embedded in the monsoon circulation is creating very active convection across southern Mexico and into the western Caribbean.
The Forecast: The trajectories out of Pinar del Rio, Cuba project out to sea and away from land and do not threaten the U.S. Low Risk to U.S. production areas from the Cuban source. Sky conditions will be unfavorable for spore survival for the trajectories through midweek out of Tepic, Mexico. Low Risk to production areas from the Tepic source. Sky conditions will be highly favorable for disease development, with rain likely for the Tapachula, Mexico trajectories. High Risk to production areas near the source for the Monday and Tuesday transport events out Tapachula. Low Risk elsewhere. If blue mold is present near Uvalde, TX: Sky conditions are not favorable for spore survival due to solar exposure. Low Risk from the Uvalde source.
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