North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast
Date Issued: 3 June 2005
Disease location(s):
Unknown
Trajectory Start: Uvalde, Texas
Forecaster: MM
Regional weather: Friday, June 3 - Central and Southern Texas, U.S.: Low pressure to the north and building high pressure in the Gulf will funnel moisture into the Southern Plains through the weekend generating morning cloud cover. There will be scattered showers Friday, clearing through the weekend. Saturday and Sunday will continue to hold the chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms
Trajectory weather: It will be partly to mostly cloudy Friday with a high in the 90s. Overnight, there will be a change for a thunderstorm and the low will be near 70. The weekend trajectories will experience mostly clear skies, warm temperatures, and a chance for thunderstorms in the evening.
Trajectory confidence: High
OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat ***
Friday: The trajectories will progress under fairly constant cloud cover and will travel up the backside of a low pressure system. The chance for rain is around 70% in day 2 of the Friday trajectory. The chance for solar exposure is present. If blue mold is present: Moderate Risk to susceptible plants in the North Texas and Southern OK region. Low Risk to known tobacco production areas. Low Risk otherwise.
Saturday and Sunday: Morning clouds will dissipate by midday allowing strong solar exposure. Widespread spore death should occur before afternoon and evening thundershowers can develop. If blue mold is present: Low Risk to known tobacco production areas.
