North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast
Forecast Summary: Friday, June 3
Weather: Low pressure to the north and building high pressure in the Gulf will funnel moisture into the Southern Plains through the weekend generating morning cloud cover. There will be scattered showers Friday, clearing through the weekend. Saturday and Sunday will continue to hold the chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. A tropical disturbance in the Gulf will bring significant rain to western Cuba and over the eastern Gulf through the weekend. Persistent tropical convection is predicted to cover the Yucatan and Southern Mexico regions through the weekend. West central Mexico remains clear, hot, and dry.
The Forecast: The trajectories out of Pinar del Rio, Cuba are expected to experience washout over the Gulf. Low Risk to US production areas from the Pinar del Rio source. Sky conditions will be unfavorable for spore survival for the trajectories through Sunday out of Tepic, Mexico. Low Risk to production areas from the Tepic source. Sky conditions will be highly favorable for disease development, with rain likely for the Tapachula, Mexico trajectories. Strongly Moderate Risk to areas near the Tapachula source. If blue mold is present near Uvalde, TX: Cloud cover and a chance for rain create a moderately favorable environment for disease development, especially on day two of the Friday trajectory. Moderate Risk to susceptible plants in the North Texas and Southern OK region for Friday's trajectory. Low Risk to known tobacco production areas. Low Risk otherwise. For Saturday and Sunday, Morning clouds will dissipate by midday allowing strong solar exposure. Widespread spore death should occur before afternoon and evening thundershowers can develop. Low Risk to known tobacco production areas.
Blue Mold Update: The transport events out of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, from early this week, have indicated the potential for blue mold to have been carried into US production areas.
As our regular readers are aware, the forecast staff was out of the office for our normal Monday forecast due to Memorial Day. However, we have since examined the transport events from early this week and have noted a potentially important weather pattern.
Monday and Tuesday, trajectories out of Pinar del Rio, indicated the possibility that live spores may have made their way to northern Florida growing areas. It is currently past the typical Cuban tobacco growing season and any source of blue mold is considered to be weak. Nonetheless, there is the slight risk that live spores could have made their way to Florida. Growers in northern Florida may wish to check their crop in 7-10 days for signs of primary infection and may wish to have control measures in mind. Infection is unlikely, but possible.
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