Cucurbit Tobacco Soybean

1 June 2005

North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast


Date Issued: 1 June 2005
Disease location(s): Western Cuba
Trajectory Start: Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Forecaster: MM

Regional weather: Wednesday, June 1 - Eastern Gulf of Mexico / southeast U.S.: The weather system over the southeast US is spreading clouds and rain across the Gulf Coast and over the eastern Gulf itself. Wind patterns continue to pull trajectories northward toward the Florida coast just as they have done all week.

Trajectory weather: Overcast with rain and a high in the 80s and a low in the 70s.

Trajectory confidence: High

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat ***

Wednesday and Thursday: The trajectories Wednesday and Thursday travel northward toward known Florida tobacco production areas. Conditions for successful transport of live spores are present and numerical forecast tools indicate that light deposition in eastcentral Florida is likely. However, it is past the Cuban growing season and the source is suspected to be weak. Moderate Risk to eastcentral Florida. Low Risk otherwise.

06/01/2005 Pinar del Rio Forecast Trajectory

<October 13>
SMTWTFS
12345
6789101112
13141516171819
20212223242526
2728293031