North Carolina State University
Blue Mold Forecast
Forecast Summary: Wednesday, June 1
Weather: A stationary front is currently set up across the southeast and will remain in place through the end of the week. There is a large amount of moisture south of the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be widespread across the southeast with some locations receiving large amounts of rain in a short period of time.
The Forecast: The trajectories out of Pinar del Rio, Cuba are favorable for live transport. Moderate Risk to eastcentral Florida from the Pinar del Rio source. Sky conditions will be unfavorable for spore survival for the trajectories through Thursday out of Tepic, Mexico. Low Risk to production areas from the Tepic source. Sky conditions will be highly favorable for disease development, with rain likely for the Tapachula, Mexico trajectories. Strongly Moderate Risk to areas near the Tapachula source. If blue mold is present near Uvalde, TX: Rain and clouds will make for favorable conditions for spore survival for Wednesday's and Thursday's transport events. Though favorable conditions are expected for spore survival, the forecast trajectories do not threaten any know production areas. Low Risk from the Uvalde source.
Blue Mold Update: The transport events out of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, from early this week, have indicated the potential for blue mold to have been carried into US production areas.
As our regular readers are aware, the forecast staff was out of the office for our normal Monday forecast due to Memorial Day. However, we have since examined the transport events from early this week and have noted a potentially important weather pattern.
Monday and Tuesday, trajectories out of Pinar del Rio, indicated the possibility that live spores may have made their way to northern Florida growing areas. It is currently past the typical Cuban tobacco growing season and any source of blue mold is considered to be weak. Nonetheless, there is the slight risk that live spores could have made their way to Florida. Growers in northern Florida may wish to check their crop in 7-10 days for signs of primary infection and may wish to have control measures in mind. Infection is unlikely, but possible.
MM