Blue Mold Forecasts for 2005

The scheduling and production of blue mold forecasts depend upon the spatial spread of source sites as the epidemic progresses. They will be issued three times per week and more frequently during peak epidemic spread. Each forecast includes descriptions of factors pertinent to the disease situation, a general outlook assessing the risk of disease development, and a map showing the flow away from an active source or source region (i.e., a cluster of closely-grouped counties) with a single, centrally-located trajectory.

The maps show the motion of a floating particle that is released into the atmosphere on the date and time given in the second line of the map headings. Trajectories may be started at up to three heights above ground level. Users may see one trajectory (red), two trajectories (red, blue), or three trajectories (red, blue, green). The red trajectory is the closest to the ground, blue the next closest, then the green. The release time is in Universal Time on a 24-hour clock, and will usually be set to correspond to 10AM local time. A black star (*) denotes the starting point for the trajectory (exact latitude and longitude are written along the left-hand side of the map). The trajectory (or trajectories) on the map shows the horizontal motion. The smaller graphic below indicates the vertical motion. The parameters for the simulation are given below the vertical motion graphic.

Early Season 2005 Bluemold Summary

March 2005	April 2005
May 2005	June 2005
July 2005	August 2005

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Page last updated by Matthew Miller on May 2, 2005.