Early Season 2005 Blue Mold Summary

Early in the 2005 forecast and growing season, before our Bluemold forecasts went live on our website, the North American Plant Disease Forecast Center (NAPDFC) observed several transport events that had the potential to deposit live spores over the United States from active overwintering sites in Cuba. These transport events are summarized below.

February 25 & 26
There was a developing storm system in the Gulf of Mexico. Northward flow over Cuba provided a potential transport path for spores to pass over and possibly deposit in northern Florida and southeast Georgia. Analysis of radar data by the NAPDFC indicated that most of the spores being transported would have been washed out by precipitation over the Gulf of Mexico before they could pass over the US. If infection did occur in the areas at risk, primary lesions would have appeared around March 6 th or 7 th. The NAPDFC believes that the risk for infection was low due to washout.

March 6
Wind patterns for March 6 th indicate that it was likely that Bluemold spores were caught up in the circulation of a low pressure system moving eastward across the Gulf of Mexico and carried toward northern Florida. Analysis of satellite imagery by the NAPDFC indicates that cloud cover near the Cuban source was unfavorable for spore survival. The NAPDFC believes that most spores would have died from UV exposure before moving under the protective cloud cover associated with the low pressure system. If infection did occur in northern Florida from this event, primary lesions would have appeared around March 15 th. The NAPDFC believes that the risk for infection was low due to significant UV exposure early in the transport event.

March 14 & 15
A low pressure system was moving eastward across the Gulf of Mexico with cloud cover already established ahead of the low. Wind flow ahead of the front indicated that spores from the Cuban overwintering site would be carried north across the Gulf of Mexico and then pushed across the southeastern US threatening northern Florida, southern Alabama, and southern Georgia. Analysis of radar data by the NAPDFC indicated that a significant amount of the spores being transported would have been washed out by precipitation over the Gulf of Mexico before they could pass over the US. If infection did occur in the areas at risk, primary lesions would have appeared around March 23 rd. The NAPDFC believes that the risk for infection was weakly moderate due to washout.

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Page last updated by Matthew Miller on April 27, 2005.