FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, May 31:
Disease Update - May 26, 2004: We have the first report of blue mold from the U.S. production areas. Blue mold was confirmed early this week in Taylor, Green, and Jessamine counties in central Kentucky. Disease has been present for much of May. The infections apparently began in greenhouses and float beds, with diseased plants later set in the field. Recent weather has been favorable for disease development. Active sporulation is occurring and has been very strong during the past week to 10 days. It is estimated that 4 disease cycles have occurred at the sites of the oldest infections. Newer infections were discovered in greenhouses and plant beds near the oldest sites. Available information indicates that no fungicides were used in the greenhouses, although a grower in Taylor County applied Ridomil Gold once plants were set in the field. The most severe case appears to be in Jessamine County, where blue mold completely obliterated the plants in one greenhouse and sporulation has been massive. The plants in this greenhouse will be destroyed. However, plants in nearby greenhouses and in the field are showing symptoms and they will NOT be destroyed. The infections in all the above counties are deemed quite serious. These sources will be added to the forecasts immediately. Trajectories will originate from Campbellsville, KY and Nicholasville, KY and the forecast will be labeled as Central Kentucky. Our thanks to Pat Hardesty, Rob Amburgey, Julie Beale, Gary Palmer, and Bill Nesmith in Kentucky for their solid efforts and excellent reporting on this outbreak.
Monday and Tuesday:
The Weather... a cold front will move into the mid-Atlantic and Gulf Coast states today. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front. By Tuesday, the cold front will lie stationary across the Gulf coast states. To the north, remnants of a weak front will lie across the Great Lakes and Northeast. Showers and thunderstorms will occur across the South. Vaguely unsettled weather will be found across the North, with mostly cloudy skies and a chance of showers. In between, mostly dry weather for the Ohio Valley and southern mid-Atlantic states, though some scattered afternoon showers may occur in or near the western slopes of the mountains.
The Forecast... In the Ohio Valley.... Trajectories from central Kentucky move east today. Partly cloudy and dry near the source, but a chance of showers toward the mountains. On Monday, Low Risk for central KY. Moderate Risk for crops in southern OH, eastern KY, western WV, southwest and extreme southwest VA. Low Risk beyond. (The trajectories are given below). On Tuesday, the trajectories move northeast, through the eastern Ohio Valley into western PA and central NY. Mixed conditions are expected for survivable transport and deposition. Moderate Risk Tuesday for southern OH and western WV. Other regions are unlikely to be impacted by Tuesday's transport event. Low Risk elsewhere. As for the other source regions..... transport events from western Cuba and southern Texas present Low Threats to other regions Monday and Tuesday.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: Central and eastern KY, southern Ohio, southeast Indiana
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.