FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, May 28 and Sunday, May 30:
Disease Update - May 26, 2004: We have the first report of blue mold from the U.S. production areas. Blue mold was confirmed early this week in Taylor, Green, and Jessamine counties in central Kentucky. Disease has been present for much of May. The infections apparently began in greenhouses and float beds, with diseased plants later set in the field. Recent weather has been favorable for disease development. Active sporulation is occurring and has been very strong during the past week to 10 days. It is estimated that 4 disease cycles have occurred at the sites of the oldest infections. Newer infections were discovered in greenhouses and plant beds near the oldest sites. Available information indicates that no fungicides were used in the greenhouses, although a grower in Taylor County applied Ridomil Gold once plants were set in the field. The most severe case appears to be in Jessamine County, where blue mold completely obliterated the plants in one greenhouse and sporulation has been massive. The plants in this greenhouse will be destroyed. However, plants in nearby greenhouses and in the field are showing symptoms and they will NOT be destroyed. The infections in all the above counties are deemed quite serious. These sources will be added to the forecasts immediately. Trajectories will originate from Campbellsville, KY and Nicholasville, KY and the forecast will be labeled as Central Kentucky. Our thanks to Pat Hardesty, Rob Amburgey, Julie Beale, Gary Palmer, and Bill Nesmith in Kentucky for their solid efforts and excellent reporting on this outbreak.
Friday through Sunday:
The Weather... a complex frontal system will be affecting the central and eastern U.S. during the course of the weekend. The weather will be mostly dry across the south, with increasing chances of wetness as one moves north. The best chances of rain will be west of the mountains.
The Forecast... Transport events from the various source areas have the potential to affect other regions this weekend. Several of these may occur on Sunday, so updated forecasts will be produced on Sunday in order to get the best information possible. On Friday.... there is Moderate Risk for far southeast KY, northeast TN, southwest and extreme southwest VA, and northwest NC. Low Risk for all other areas on Friday. On Saturday, there is Low Risk to tobacco crops for all areas. Please refer to the source-specific forecasts for details.
Sunday Update... much as expected.... a warm front lies from the Carolinas northwestward to a low pressure area in the Dakotas. A cold front drops southward through the Plains. The warm front will move north through the mid-Atlantic while the cold front pushes east into the MS Valley. Showers and thunderstorms are occurring along and ahead of the fronts, with more isolated activity elsewhere. For the forecasts.... transport events from western Cuba and southern TX are Low Threats to the U.S. production areas. Conditions are very unfavorable for survivable transport from Cuba. Trajectories from southern TX do not threaten other areas. The transport event from central KY is of greater concern. This event will threaten central sections of the Ohio Valley and southern Canada. Trajectories are moving northward into the eastern Great Lakes today and tonight. Sky conditions were favorable for survivable transport this morning but have become mixed toward midday. Showers and thunderstorms have been firing in central KY since mid-morning. They have continued through the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms are likely through the night as the event progresses through Ohio and western Lake Erie. Some washout will occur today, and some spores will probably remain airborne long enough to affect the growing areas of southern Ontario. HIGH RISK on Sunday for a broad area of central Kentucky. Strongly Moderate Risk for southeast IN and southern OH. Moderate Risk for crops in southern Ontario, especially the western sections. Low Risk otherwise on Sunday. Preliminary indications for Monday are that the Ohio Valley source may impact areas to the east, while the sources in Cuba and southern Texas appear to be Low Threats.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: Central and eastern KY, southern Ohio, southeast Indiana
Current Sources:
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Southern Texas
Previous Sources:
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.