FORECAST SUMMARY: Wednesday, May 26:
Disease Update - May 26, 2004: We have the first report of blue mold from the U.S. production areas. Blue mold was confirmed early this week in Taylor, Green, and Jessamine counties in central Kentucky. Disease has been present for much of May. The infections apparently began in greenhouses and float beds, with diseased plants later set in the field. Recent weather has been favorable for disease development. Active sporulation is occurring and has been very strong during the past week to 10 days. It is estimated that 4 disease cycles have occurred at the sites of the oldest infections. Newer infections were discovered in greenhouses and plant beds near the oldest sites. Available information indicates that no fungicides were used in the greenhouses, although a grower in Taylor County applied Ridomil Gold once plants were set in the field. The most severe case appears to be in Jessamine County, where blue mold completely obliterated the plants in one greenhouse and sporulation has been massive. The plants in this greenhouse will be destroyed. However, plants in nearby greenhouses and in the field are showing symptoms and they will NOT be destroyed. The infections in all the above counties are deemed quite serious. These sources will be added to the forecasts immediately. Trajectories will originate from Campbellsville, KY and Nicholasville, KY and the forecast will be labeled as Central Kentucky. Our thanks to Pat Hardesty, Rob Amburgey, Julie Beale, Gary Palmer, and Bill Nesmith in Kentucky for their solid efforts and excellent reporting on this outbreak.
Wednesday and Thursday:
The Weather... a stationary front lies from the mid-Atlantic states westward through the Ohio Valley and into the central Plains. The frontal zone will be the focus for shower and thunderstorm activity during the next several days, providing favorable conditions for long-range transport and deposition of airborne spores.
The Forecast... airborne spores from the sources in central KY will impact parts of the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic regions. In addition, blue mold spores released on Wednesday in southern TX will move north and east toward the Ohio Valley, adding the effect. On Wednesday.... there is HIGH RISK for central and eastern KY and southern OH. Moderate Risk for the rest of the tobacco crops in the Ohio Valley. Low Risk elsewhere. On Thursday.... there is Strongly Moderate Risk for central KY, southeast IN, and southern OH. Moderate Risk for eastern KY, western WV, Maryland, and southeast PA. Low Risk elsewhere.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: None
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
None
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.