FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, May 24:
Monday and Tuesday: The southern Texas source region is a Moderate Threat for Tuesday's transport event. A frontal boundary snakes its way from the central Plains eastward through the mid-MS and Ohio Valleys and into the mid-Atlantic states. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be prevalent near this front during the next two days. Monday's trajectories out of southern TX move north and then curve east on Tuesday through northern MO and central sections of IL and IN. This looks to be a Low Threat event. Tuesday's transport event is more threatening. Trajectories move north through TX and OK, then curve east, tracking through southern MO / northern AR on Wednesday and into western sections of the Ohio Valley region Wednesday night. Conditions are expected to be mixed for survivable transport on Tuesday and favorable thereafter. Washout of airborne spores is likely on Wednesday over MO and AR, but enough surviving spores will remain airborne to impact the Ohio Valley. There is Moderate Risk Tuesday for western sections of the Ohio Valley.... western TN, western KY, and southern IN. Low Risk otherwise for this event. Trajectories from the other known sources do not threaten other growing regions.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: None
Current Sources:
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Southern Texas
Previous Sources:
None
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.