Disease Update - June 9, 2004: We have the first report from the southern Appalachian Mountains. Our thanks to Mike Heiskell.... who informs us of an outbreak of blue mold in a 3-acre field near the Union County / Claiborne County line in eastern TN. The infection appears to be fairly new. Fresh lesions are present and sporulating heavily. Recent weather has been favorable for disease development. We are adding this source to the forecasts, calling it Tazewell (nearby town in Claiborne County).
Disease Update - June 7, 2004: The plants from the greenhouse in Logan County, KY were destroyed. The grower set his crop with plants from another area of the county. No other activity has been reported in the immediate vicinity. Isolates from the KY sites near Campbellsville and Nicholasville have tested as sensitive and highly sensitive, respectively, to metalaxyl. We have added a source site for the outbreak in north-central TN, which is in Macon County near the town of Lafayette.
The Weather... A summer-like weather pattern is in place for the next several days. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are occurring in many areas. There is also some heavy rainfall from southern Texas northward into the midsections of the U. S. A cold front now lying across the northern tier of states will move south today and Thursday. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be enhanced along and ahead of the front.
The Forecast... the sources in central KY, north-central TN, and eastern TN will combine to present a significant threat to the growing regions of the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachian Mountains today and Thursday. Mixed conditions are present for survivable transport and deposition on Wednesday. Conditions will become more favorable for disease development on Thursday as the cold front draws near these regions. On Wednesday.... there is Moderate Risk for many areas including central and eastern KY, western WV, southwest and extreme southwest VA, north-central and eastern TN, and the central and northern mountains of NC. Low Risk otherwise. On Thursday.... there is HIGH RISK for central and eastern KY, western WV, extreme southwest VA, and north-central and eastern TN. There is Strongly Moderate Risk for crops in southern OH and southwest VA. Moderate Risk Thursday for northwest NC. Low Risk otherwise.
Elsewhere ... conditions will be favorable for disease development in southern TX Wednesday and Thursday, but this source area is a Low Threat to other regions. Transport events from western Cuba present Low Threats to other regions.
High pressure nosing down from Canada will push a cold front southward through the east coast states this weekend. By Sunday the front will stretch from SC northwestward through the mountains and Ohio Valley and will be dissipating. The regions of interest in the forecast are the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachian Mountains. Skies will be partly cloudy and there is a daily chance of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Transport events likely will not affect other regions Friday and Saturday. Crops in southern Canada may be impacted by Sunday's transport events. However, the uncertainty of Sunday's events is very large at this point. Sunday's events will be reviewed and Monday's report will include any impact they may have. Transport events from Cuba and southern Texas are unlikely to affect other regions Friday through Sunday.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: Central and eastern KY, western WV, extreme southwest VA, north-central and eastern TN, southern Ohio, southeast Indiana, southwest VA
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.