FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, June 7:
Disease Update - June 7, 2004: The plants from the greenhouse in Logan County, KY were destroyed. The grower set his crop with plants from another area of the county. No other activity has been reported in the immediate vicinity. Isolates from the KY sites near Campbellsville and Nicholasville have tested as sensitive and highly sensitive, respectively, to metalaxyl. We have added a source site for the outbreak in north-central TN, which is in Macon County near the town of Lafayette.
Disease Update - June 4, 2004: We have the first report of blue mold in Tennessee, plus another report from south-central Kentucky. Blue mold was discovered on Wednesday in 2 small parts of an outdoor float bed in Macon County in north-central TN. Plants in nearby beds and greenhouses do not yet show any symptoms. The bed was sprayed with Dithane and has not been destroyed. The grower will decide on a course of action once the extent of secondary spread can be determined. Blue mold was also reported from Logan County, KY, based on samples sent to the diagnostic lab at the University of Kentucky. Few details are available. The plants had been in an outdoor float bed and were yellowing when moved to a greenhouse and sprayed with Dithane. The samples submitted showed both new lesions and systemic development. Both of these outbreaks are questionable at this time. We may be adding a new source area next week, depending on how the situations develop.
Monday and Tuesday:
The Weather... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur in the Southeast and TN valley today, and over most areas from the Ohio River Valley southward on Tuesday. Rain expected in southern and eastern TX Monday and Tuesday. A cold front will spread showers into the Great Lakes beginning in the western Lakes on Tuesday.
The Forecast... An update on Sunday was not needed. Trajectories from central KY on Sunday showed movement to the north. Transport conditions were mostly unfavorable and no rain was expected along the forecast pathway. Attention is once again drawn to the Ohio Valley Monday and Tuesday. The sources are Low Threats on Monday. No rain is expected along the forecast pathways as they move to the northeast. On Tuesday... trajectories move ENE under mixed conditions for spore survival. There is a chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday during these transport events. Moderate Risk Tuesday for north-central TN, central Kentucky, southeast IN, and southern OH. There is Low to perhaps Weakly Moderate Risk for the growing areas of southern Ontario, Canada. Low Risk otherwise.
Elsewhere ... transport events from western Cuba and southern Texas present Low Threats to other regions Monday and Tuesday.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: Central KY, southern Ohio, southeast Indiana
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.