FORECAST SUMMARY: Wednesday, June 2:
Disease Update - May 26, 2004: We have the first report of blue mold from the U.S. production areas. Blue mold was confirmed early this week in Taylor, Green, and Jessamine counties in central Kentucky. Disease has been present for much of June. The infections apparently began in greenhouses and float beds, with diseased plants later set in the field. Recent weather has been favorable for disease development. Active sporulation is occurring and has been very strong during the past week to 10 days. It is estimated that 4 disease cycles have occurred at the sites of the oldest infections. Newer infections were discovered in greenhouses and plant beds near the oldest sites. Available information indicates that no fungicides were used in the greenhouses, although a grower in Taylor County applied Ridomil Gold once plants were set in the field. The most severe case appears to be in Jessamine County, where blue mold completely obliterated the plants in one greenhouse and sporulation has been massive. The plants in this greenhouse will be destroyed. However, plants in nearby greenhouses and in the field are showing symptoms and they will NOT be destroyed. The infections in all the above counties are deemed quite serious. These sources will be added to the forecasts immediately. Trajectories will originate from Campbellsville, KY and Nicholasville, KY and the forecast will be labeled as Central Kentucky. Our thanks to Pat Hardesty, Rob Amburgey, Julie Beale, Gary Palmer, and Bill Nesmith in Kentucky for their solid efforts and excellent reporting on this outbreak.
Wednesday and Thursday:
The Weather... a frontal system now lies from the Northeast through the Ohio Valley and into the southern Plains. The front will work its way south and east during the next 48 hours. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms along the frontaly boundary each day. The best chances and most significant amounts of rain will occur over portions of northern TX and the Gulf Coast, and parts of the upper mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Drier weather across the northern half on Thursday as high pressure builds in behind the front.
The Forecast... In the Ohio Valley.... Trajectories from central Kentucky are moving east. Conditions are generally mixed for survivable transport and deposition. Moderate Risk Wednesday for southern Ohio, western WV, and the eastern half of KY, especially the north-central and northeast. Weakly Moderate Risk for southern MD, as some airborne spores may be rained out late tonight. Low Risk elsewhere. Expect a Low Threat from the Ohio Valley source on Thursday. Elsewhere ... transport events from western Cuba and southern Texas present Low Threats to other regions Wednesday and Thursday.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: Central and eastern KY, southern Ohio, southeast Indiana
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.