Disease Update - June 25, 2004: Blue mold continues to increase in the Ohio Valley. There are now 33 counties in KY with confirmed blue mold, plus 4 in southern Ohio (Adams, Brown, Highland, and Scioto). We are adding a source site in southern Ohio to represent the active blue mold in that region, which represents the northeastern extent of the Ohio Valley infections. We have the first report from the VA mountains. Blue mold was discovered Wednesday in Lee County in extreme southwest VA in a 2-acre field. Chuck Johnson states in his report that he expects more blue mold to be found in this region as growers get more opportunity to get into their fields to work. Weather here, as in the Ohio Valley, has been quite favorable recently for disease development.
Disease Update - June 23, 2004: We have the first reports from Ohio, Virginia, and the NC mountains. The Ohio reports are from Adams and Highland Counties. The Virginia report is from Pittsylvania County in southside VA. Madison County in the central NC mountains is the site for 2 new reports from that area.
The Weather... This weekend's cold front is dissipating across the Carolinas and TN River Valley. Another cold front is pushing south and east from the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. By Tuesday afternoon, this second cold front will stall out across the southern borders of NC and TN, much like the one from this past weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms for most areas today under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Heaviest rain across the southern tier of states with lighter activity along the approaching cold front. Dry weather across the northern half and southern Canada on Tuesday. Scattered showers and storms southern half on Tuesday.
The Forecast... Trajectories are moving slowly for the transport events of Monday and Tuesday, so the danger to regions away from the current sources is minimal. Favorable weather near the known sources on Monday will be diminished on Tuesday as drier conditions move in. On Monday.... HIGH Risk for the southern Appalachian Mountains from northeast GA through extreme southwest VA. Strongly Moderate Risk for southern OH. Moderate Risk for central and eastern KY, western WV, north-central TN, southside VA, and north-central NC. Low Risk otherwise. On Tuesday.... Weakly Moderate Risk for north-central and eastern TN, and western and central NC. Low Risk elsewhere.
The sources in Cuba and southern Texas are Low Threats to other regions the next two days.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: Central and eastern KY, western WV, extreme southwest VA, north-central and eastern TN, southern Ohio, western NC, southwest and southside VA, north-central NC
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.