Disease Update - June 25, 2004: Blue mold continues to increase in the Ohio Valley. There are now 33 counties in KY with confirmed blue mold, plus 4 in southern Ohio (Adams, Brown, Highland, and Scioto). We are adding a source site in southern Ohio to represent the active blue mold in that region, which represents the northeastern extent of the Ohio Valley infections. We have the first report from the VA mountains. Blue mold was discovered Wednesday in Lee County in extreme southwest VA in a 2-acre field. Chuck Johnson states in his report that he expects more blue mold to be found in this region as growers get more opportunity to get into their fields to work. Weather here, as in the Ohio Valley, has been quite favorable recently for disease development.
Disease Update - June 23, 2004: We have the first reports from Ohio, Virginia, and the NC mountains. The Ohio reports are from Adams and Highland Counties. The Virginia report is from Pittsylvania County in southside VA. Madison County in the central NC mountains is the site for 2 new reports from that area.
The Weather... Yet another cold front is pushing south and east through the eastern half of the U.S. It now lies from the New England states through the mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley into the southern Plains. By Sunday it will be stationary over the deep South. Widespread cloudiness with numerous showers and storms will accompany the front, with more scattered activity farther south. Drier weather is expected behind the front under partly cloudy skies. Rain is likely for many areas on Friday with the heaviest in the mid-Atlantic westward through the lower Ohio Valley, plus the western Gulf coast. Scattered showers along the Atlantic Seaboard on Saturday with more heavy rain for east TX through MS. Hihg pressure and dry weather moving into the Ohio Valley on Saturday will continue on Sunday and spread eastward. Expect showers and thunderstorms along the stalled front across the south, extending westward into the southern and central Plains.
The Forecast... very unsettled weather on Friday with showers and thunderstorms spreading over the mountains and much of the Ohio Valley during the morning hours. Trajectories move slowly from nearly all sources today. Rain that is falling this morning and afternoon will hinder spore release or quickly wash out any airborne spores. HIGH RISK today for southern OH, central and eastern KY, north-central and eastern TN, extreme southwest VA, and western NC. Strongly Moderate Risk for north-central NC and southside VA. Low Risk otherwise. On Saturday.... the cold front will have moved through the Ohio Valley but a chance of showers will linger in the mountains and the Carolinas. Trajectories will move to the south. Moderate Risk Saturday for southside VA, central and western NC, and northeast GA. Weakly Moderate Risk for other sections of the southern Appalachian Mountains, including eastern TN and extreme southwest VA. Low Risk otherwise. On Sunday.... dry weather for most areas with only a slight chance of showers in the mountains. Weakly Moderate Risk for the southern Appalachian Mountains on Sunday, with Low Risk otherwise.
The sources in Cuba and southern Texas are Low Threats to other regions this weekend.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: Central and eastern KY, western WV, extreme southwest VA, north-central and eastern TN, southern Ohio, western NC, southwest and southside VA, north-central NC
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.