Disease Update - June 23, 2004: We have the first reports from Ohio, Virginia, and the NC mountains. The Ohio reports are from Adams and Highland Counties. The Virginia report is from Pittsylvania County in southside VA. Madison County in the central NC mountains is the site for 2 new reports from that area.
A cold front in the north-central U.S. on Monday pushed south and east into the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms moved into these regions on Tuesday after a mostly dry day on Monday. The southern Appalachian Mountains had unsettled, stormy weather both days. The southern tier of states experienced scattered to numerous afternoon showers and storms Monday and Tuesday. Sunday's transport events posed little threat to other regions. On Monday... trajectories moved north and then east at a modest pace. There was Strongly Moderate Risk for eastern TN, western NC, and southwest and extreme southwest VA. Moderate Risk Monday for north-central TN, north-central NC, southside VA, and southeast PA. For Tuesday's transport events... trajectories moved to the east. There was HIGH RISK for tobacco crops in eastern TN, western NC, and extreme southwest VA. Moderate Risk for central KY, southern OH, north-central TN, western WV, north-central NC, and southside VA. Low Risk other areas Monday and Tuesday.
The Weather... The front that moved through the northern tier of states will continue its push southward today and Thursday. It now lies across the mid-Atlantic and eastern Ohio Valley, then westward into Texas. Strong high pressure to the south will cause the front to slow down, stall, and then dissipate across the southern states. Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms near the front, partly cloudy with scattered activity elsewhere.
The Forecast... The frontal passage will have the most impact for the mountain areas, with more mixed conditions elsewhere. On Wednesday... there is HIGH RISK for tobacco crops in eastern TN, western NC, and extreme southwest VA. Strongly Moderate Risk for north-central TN. Moderate Risk around these areas, including south-central and eastern KY, central and eastern NC, and southwest and southside VA. Low Risk otherwise Wednesday. Thursday... the front will be south of all the known sources, and unfavorable conditions for survivable transport and deposition will hold sway. Low Threat form all the known sources on Thursday, with Low Risk to crops. Chance of showers will re-enter the forecast for most areas on Friday.
The sources in Cuba and southern Texas are Low Threats to other regions.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: Central and eastern KY, western WV, extreme southwest VA, north-central and eastern TN, southern Ohio, southeast Indiana, southwest VA
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.