Disease Update - June 14, 2004: We have the first report from North Carolina. We have an additional report from north-central TN and an update on the increasing blue mold activity in Kentucky. The NC report is from the flue-cured region. Blue mold was discovered within the last few days in a 1/2-acre field in Rockingham County, east of Reidsville, in north-central NC. Other details are unavailable at this time, but as this report is the farthest east of all others, and more blue mold may be present but undiscovered, we are adding this site to the forecasts. A serious source of blue mold was reported and confirmed June 10 from Robertson County in north-central TN. A 2-acre field of burley tobacco is 100% infected. Old and new lesions are present and sporulation is strong. This field infection derived from the use of infected transplants from a nearby float bed, which also contains diseased plants. Our thanks to Buddy Bourne and Steve Bost for this report. Finally... an update from Kentucky indicates that blue mold continues to spread in that state. Bill Nesmith states that 11 counties now have at least one confirmed case. The counties run along a southwest to northeast line through central KY..... from Logan County, KY and Mason County, TN in the south to Bracken County along the Ohio River in northern KY. He further states that although disease activity was reported over a 2-week period, observations indicate that nearly all outbreaks received the initial deposition of inoculum at about the same time. The weather in the Ohio Valley has been favorable for disease development during the past week. The favorable weather is likely to continue this week.
The Weather... A frontal system now lying across the northern and central sections of the eastern U.S. will move south during the next few days. Hot and muggy with scattered showers and thunderstorms along and south of the front. Drier and cooler conditions will move into the northern half as the front pushes south.
The Forecast... attention is once again drawn to the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachian Mountain regions. Mixed conditions for survivable transport and deposition will define the various transport events. The sources in the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachian Mountains will affect those regions, while the weak source in north-central NC may impact the central and eastern portions of that state. Trajectories will be moving east and southeast on Friday, south to southeast on Saturday. On Friday... there is Moderate Risk for tobacco crops in eastern KY, southern OH, western WV, extreme southwest and southwest VA, north-central and eastern TN, and the central and northern mountains of NC. Weakly moderate Risk for central KY, central and northeast NC, and northern SC. Low Risk otherwise. On Saturday.... there is Moderate Risk for central and eastern KY, central and eastern TN, extreme southwest VA, the mountains areas of NC, northeast GA, and east-central NC. There is Weakly Moderate Risk for north-central NC. Low Risk otherwise on Saturday. On Sunday.... all sources are Low Threats. The sources in the Ohio Valley will be watched to see if they may impact southern Canada, although at this time that appears unlikely.
The sources in Cuba and southern Texas are Low Threats to other regions.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: Central and eastern KY, western WV, extreme southwest VA, north-central and eastern TN, southern Ohio, southeast Indiana, southwest VA
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.