Disease Update - June 14, 2004: We have the first report from North Carolina. We have an additional report from north-central TN and an update on the increasing blue mold activity in Kentucky. The NC report is from the flue-cured region. Blue mold was discovered within the last few days in a 1/2-acre field in Rockingham County, east of Reidsville, in north-central NC. Other details are unavailable at this time, but as this report is the farthest east of all others, and more blue mold may be present but undiscovered, we are adding this site to the forecasts. A serious source of blue mold was reported and confirmed June 10 from Robertson County in north-central TN. A 2-acre field of burley tobacco is 100% infected. Old and new lesions are present and sporulation is strong. This field infection derived from the use of infected transplants from a nearby float bed, which also contains diseased plants. Our thanks to Buddy Bourne and Steve Bost for this report. Finally... an update from Kentucky indicates that blue mold continues to spread in that state. Bill Nesmith states that 11 counties now have at least one confirmed case. The counties run along a southwest to northeast line through central KY..... from Logan County, KY and Mason County, TN in the south to Bracken County along the Ohio River in northern KY. He further states that although disease activity was reported over a 2-week period, observations indicate that nearly all outbreaks received the initial deposition of inoculum at about the same time. The weather in the Ohio Valley has been favorable for disease development during the past week. The favorable weather is likely to continue this week.
The Weather... More unsettled weather is on tap for mid-week. One front is dissipated over the mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley today, while another will move into the Northeast, upper mid-Atlantic and the upper Ohio Valley on Thursday. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies with numerous showers and thunderstorms near the fronts and more scattered activity elsewhere.
The Forecast... across the midsection of the eastern U.S. ... trajectories are moving to the northeast on Wednesday. Conditions are generally mixed for survivable transport and deposition although some morning showers have enhanced the favorability in NC. Moderate Risk Wednesday for central and eastern KY, southeast IN, southern OH, western WV, north-central and northeast TN, extreme southwest VA, and MD. Strongly Moderate Risk for north-central NC and southside VA, especially near the source in Rockingham County, NC. Low Risk otherwise. On Thursday.... conditions worsen in the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachian Mountains as the second front approaches. Trajectories from the various sources move east to ENE. There is HIGH RISK Thursday for central and eastern KY, southeast IN, southern OH, western WV, north-central and northeast TN, and extreme SW VA. There is Strongly Moderate Risk for crops in southwest and southside VA. Moderate Risk for crops in north-west and north-central NC, MD, and southeast PA. Low Risk otherwise.
The sources in Cuba and southern Texas are Low Threats to other regions.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: Central and eastern KY, western WV, extreme southwest VA, north-central and eastern TN, southern Ohio, southeast Indiana, southwest VA
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.