Disease Update - June 14, 2004: We have the first report from North Carolina. We have an additional report from north-central TN and an update on the increasing blue mold activity in Kentucky. The NC report is from the flue-cured region. Blue mold was discovered within the last few days in a 1/2-acre field in Rockingham County, east of Reidsville, in north-central NC. Other details are unavailable at this time, but as this report is the farthest east of all others, and more blue mold may be present but undiscovered, we are adding this site to the forecasts. A serious source of blue mold was reported and confirmed June 10 from Robertson County in north-central TN. A 2-acre field of burley tobacco is 100% infected. Old and new lesions are present and sporulation is strong. This field infection derived from the use of infected transplants from a nearby float bed, which also contains diseased plants. Our thanks to Buddy Bourne and Steve Bost for this report. Finally... an update from Kentucky indicates that blue mold continues to spread in that state. Bill Nesmith states that 11 counties now have at least one confirmed case. The counties run along a southwest to northeast line through central KY..... from Logan County, KY and Mason County, TN in the south to Bracken County along the Ohio River in northern KY. He further states that although disease activity was reported over a 2-week period, observations indicate that nearly all outbreaks received the initial deposition of inoculum at about the same time. The weather in the Ohio Valley has been favorable for disease development during the past week. The favorable weather is likely to continue this week.
The Weather... Unsettled weather is expected for the eastern U.S. and southern Canada for much of this week. A warm, soupy air mass is in place, especially for the southern tier. A cold front now in the southern Great Lakes will move south into the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic regions on Tuesday. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies the next two days, with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible for most areas. Shower and thunderstorm activity will be enhanced near the cold front and also near a weak low pressure area near the LA coast.
The Forecast... across the midsection of the eastern U.S. ... trajectories are moving to the northeast and then east from the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic regions on Monday. Conditions for survivable transport and deposition are mixed to mostly favorable. There is Moderate to Strongly Moderate Risk for crops in north-central and northeast TN, central and eastern KY, southeast IN, southern OH, western WV, and extreme southwest VA. There is Moderate Risk for north-central NC and south-central VA. Low Risk otherwise. On Tuesday... the environmental parameters will be quite similar to those of Monday, with mixed to mostly favorable conditions for survivable transport and deposition. Trajectories will be moving slowly north. The transport events of Tuesday are likely to impact the same areas as those from Monday, and the risk assessment are exactly the same.
One other note..... while tobacco crops in southern Canada, southern New England, southeast PA, and MD are at Low Risk on Monday and Tuesday... we strongly encourage growers in these areas to maintain a close watch on their plants in the coming days. Though the likelihood is small, transport events from the sources to the south and west have the potential to impact your areas. Any resulting infections would likely be isolated and difficult to detect without diligent scouting.
Elsewhere ... the sources in Cuba and southern Texas are Low Threats to other regions.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: Central and eastern KY, western WV, extreme southwest VA, north-central and eastern TN, southern Ohio, southeast Indiana, southwest VA
Current Sources:
Western Cuba
Southern Texas
Central Kentucky
Lafayette, Tennessee
Tazewell, Tennesssee
Reidsville, North Carolina
Previous Sources:
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.