Disease Update - July 7, 2004: Blue mold is raging in Kentucky. Bill Nesmith reports that blue mold is now active in 50 counties in Kentucky, with epidemic levels of disease in many fields. The KY infections are bracketed on the southwest end by 5 counties with reported blue mold in north-central TN, and on the northeast end by 5 counties in southern Ohio. In the southern Appalachian Mountains.... blue mold is spreading, driven by persistently favorable weather conditions. Buncombe, Madison, Yancey, and Mitchell counties in western NC have confirmed blue mold, plus 4 counties in eastern TN and 1 county in extreme southwest VA. Further increases in disease activity are expected unless there is a significant change in the weather.
The Weather... A summertime weather pattern is in place for the next several days. The Bermuda High is well-trenched over most of the east U.S. Other than a dissipating front in the northern Ohio Valley, no major weather systems will approach the known source regions. Partly cloudy skies will dominate. Isolated to scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will occur in various areas each day, and many areas will remain hot and dry.
The Forecast... trajectories move slowly to the east or ENE each day from Friday through Sunday. Transport events should have little to no impact on other growing regions. Conditions will be mixed for survivable transport and deposition. In the Ohio Valley.... Moderate Risk to tobacco crops in southeast IN, southern OH, western WV, and central and eastern KY from Friday through Sunday. Weakly Moderate Risk for north-central TN. In the mountains.... Weakly Moderate Risk on Friday. Moderate Risk Saturday and Sunday for the eastern sections of the mountains, continued Weakly Moderate Risk for the western sections of the mountains. East of the mountains.... Low Risk Friday and Saturday. Moderate Risk Sunday for north-central NC and southside VA. Low Risk Friday through Sunday for all other growing regions.
The sources in Cuba and southern Texas are Low Threats to other regions the next two days.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: Southern Appalachian Mountains
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.