Disease Update - July 7, 2004: Blue mold is raging in Kentucky. Bill Nesmith reports that blue mold is now active in 50 counties in Kentucky, with epidemic levels of disease in many fields. The KY infections are bracketed on the southwest end by 5 counties with reported blue mold in north-central TN, and on the northeast end by 5 counties in southern Ohio. In the southern Appalachian Mountains.... blue mold is spreading, driven by persistently favorable weather conditions. Buncombe, Madison, Yancey, and Mitchell counties in western NC have confirmed blue mold, plus 4 counties in eastern TN and 1 county in extreme southwest VA. Further increases in disease activity are expected unless there is a significant change in the weather.
Trajectories from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachian Mountains moved generally to the east both days. The threat to other regions was Low, but there were isolated to scattered showers in these regions. Moderate Risk Monday and Tuesday for the southern Appalachian Mountains and north-central TN; Weakly Moderate Risk for other sections of the Ohio Valley except the far west. Low Risk elsewhere Monday and Tuesday.
The Weather... A low pressure area in the Great Lakes anchors a warm front that lies across the mid-Atlantic states and a cold front that extends to the south and west. The Low will move eastward over the next two days, dragging the warm front to the north while the cold front moves through the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic regions. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday, mainly in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Showery weather for the Northeast again on Thursday, but drier weather for most of the Ohio Valley eastward through the mid-Atlantic. Hot and humid with scattered afternoon showers and storms across the south.
The Forecast... trajectories move to the east on Wednesday under mixed conditions for survivable transport and deposition. Strongly Moderate Risk for the southern Appalachian Mountains. Moderate Risk for the Ohio Valley region except Low Risk for the western sections. Weakly Moderate Risk for Maryland and southeast PA. Airborne spores released today may get washed out over those areas on Thursday. Low Risk otherwise. For Thursday's events.... drier weather will bring a decreased chance of survivable transport and deposition. Trajectories move slowly east. Weakly Moderate Risk for north-central TN and the southern Appalachian Mountains on Thursday. Low Risk for all other areas on Thursday.
The sources in Cuba and southern Texas are Low Threats to other regions the next two days.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: Central and eastern KY, western WV, extreme southwest VA, north-central and eastern TN, southern Ohio, western NC, southwest and southside VA, north-central NC
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.