Disease Update - July 30, 2004: Blue Mold is still advancing in the Ohio Valley. Though disease activity has dimished somewhat in recent weeks, blue mold remains very strong in this region, with some areas experiencing historically high levels of disease. There is still a significant threat of even higher levels of disease activity over the next several weeks, unless the weather turns markedly unfavorable for disease development.
The Weather... Expect unsettled weather for the eastern U.S. and southern Ontario for the next several days. High pressure in the western Atlantic will continue to feed copious amounts of moisture into the eastern United States this weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible just about anywhere Friday and Saturday. Rainfall will be focused and enhanced by a cold front that will move into the Ohio Valley on Saturday.... and there is a tropical system that will bring more moisture and concentrated rainfall to the Southeast on Saturday. Some drying will begin on Sunday in the Ohio Valley as the cold front moves east, while scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will affect the Appalachian Mountains and east coast states. Dry weather will continue for much of the Ohio Valley through the early part of next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in the southern Appalachian Mountains, mid-Atlantic, and Southeast.
The Forecast... We have another significant threat to the southern Ontario growing region. Trajectories from all areas of the Ohio Valley are moving northeast on Friday afternoon. Conditions are mostly favorable for survivable transport. Airborne spores from the Ohio Valley will be moving over the northern shores of Lake Erie tonight and Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms are blossoming during the early afternoon hours in the Ohio Valley and rain is likely later today and tonight over OH (along the forecast pathways). However, despite the expected washout, enough spores will remain airborne to bring elevated risk to the southern Canada growing areas. Strongly Moderate Risk for all the Ohio Valley on Friday. Moderate Risk for tobacco crops in southern Ontario, with deposition occurring tonight and Saturday. Elsewhere on Friday, there is Strongly Moderate Risk for the southern Appalachian Mountains, and Weakly Moderate Risk for north-central NC and southside VA. Low Risk otherwise. Saturday and Sunday.... transport events from the known sources are unlikely to affect other growing regions. HIGH Risk in the Ohio Valley on Saturday as the cold front passes through. Low to Weakly Moderate Risk in the Ohio Valley on Sunday. Conditions will be favorable for disease development in the southern Appalachian Mountains Saturday and Sunday, with Strongly Moderate Risk to tobacco crops. East of the mountains, Low Risk for all areas on Saturday. Weakly Moderate Risk for north-central NC and southside VA on Sunday, with Low Risk elsewhere.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: Southern Appalachian Mountains, Ohio Valley
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Southern Texas
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.