Disease Update - June 25, 2004: Blue mold continues to increase in the Ohio Valley. There are now 33 counties in KY with confirmed blue mold, plus 4 in southern Ohio (Adams, Brown, Highland, and Scioto). We are adding a source site in southern Ohio to represent the active blue mold in that region, which represents the northeastern extent of the Ohio Valley infections. We have the first report from the VA mountains. Blue mold was discovered Wednesday in Lee County in extreme southwest VA in a 2-acre field. Chuck Johnson states in his report that he expects more blue mold to be found in this region as growers get more opportunity to get into their fields to work. Weather here, as in the Ohio Valley, has been quite favorable recently for disease development.
The Weather... High pressure lies over the Great Lakes. A stationary front stetching from New England down through the mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, and up to the northern Plains surrounds the High. South of the front, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected under partly to mostly cloudy skies. On Saturday the front moves to the north and begins to dissipate. This allows moisture to stream northward into the Great Lakes and southern Ontario. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will affect most areas east of the Rockies on Saturday. By Sunday, the areas of heavier precipitation will lie across the northern tier, with more scattered activity to the south.
The Forecast... Unsettled weather is in store for most areas this weekend, and there is a threat to growing areas in Wisconsin and southern Canada. On Friday... trajectories move slowly. HIGH Risk for the southern Appalachian Mountains. Strongly Moderate Risk for south-central KY and north-central TN. Moderate Risk for southern IN, southern OH, northern KY, western WV, north-central NC, and southside VA. Saturday and Sunday.... trajectories move north on Saturday and north to northeast on Sunday. Favorable weather for survivable transport and deposition is expected in many cases. There is Strongly Moderate to HIGH Risk on Saturday and Sunday for the southern Appalachian Mountains, north-central TN, all of KY but the far west, southern IN, southern OH, and western WV. There will be Moderate Risk for tobacco crops in north-central NC, southside VA, Wisconsin, and southern Ontario. Low Risk for other areas this weekend.
The sources in Cuba and southern Texas are Low Threats to other regions the next three days.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: Central and eastern KY, western WV, extreme southwest VA, north-central and eastern TN, southern Ohio, western NC, southwest and southside VA, north-central NC
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.