Disease Update - July 19, 2004: Blue Mold continues to spread in the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachian Mountains. We have the first reports from West Virgina, from Cabell, Wayne, and Putnam counties. Kentucky now reports over 70 counties with confirmed blue mold, with northern TN at 9 counties and southern Ohio still at 5. In the mountains, there are over a dozen counties will confirmed blue mold loosely centered in northeast TN, plus some adjoining counties in western NC and extreme southwest VA.
The Weather... High pressure resides over the eastern U.S. and southern Canada today, with mostly dry conditions under sunny to partly cloudy skies. Unsettled weather is on the way soon. A cold front that is kicking off some showers this afternoon in the Great Lakes and Midwest will move southeastward tonight and Thursday. Scattered showers and storms will spread into the eastern Lakes and Ohio Valley tonight. Partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers or storms for much of the Ohio Valley, mid-Atlantic, and Northeast on Thursday.
The Forecast... There is significant threat to the southern Ontario growing region. Spores released Wednesday from northern KY and southern OH are moving northeast. Conditions are mixed for survivable transport. Minimal washout of these airborne spores will occur this afternoon and evening. Scattered showers are expected over the southern Canada growing areas from later tonight through Thursday. Tobacco crops in southern Ontario are at Moderate Risk of disease development from this transport event. It appears that crops in southern New England and southeast PA will be largely unaffected. These areas are at Low Risk, as are all others for Wednesday's transport events. On Thursday..... trajectories will be moving east and southeast under mixed conditions for survivable transport and deposition. Tobacco crops in the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachian Mountains will be at Moderate Risk. Weakly Moderate Risk for southside VA and north-central NC. Low Risk for other growing regions on Thursday.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: Southern Appalachian Mountains, Ohio Valley
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Southern Texas
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.