Disease Update - July 7, 2004: Blue mold is raging in Kentucky. Bill Nesmith reports that blue mold is now active in 50 counties in Kentucky, with epidemic levels of disease in many fields. The KY infections are bracketed on the southwest end by 5 counties with reported blue mold in north-central TN, and on the northeast end by 5 counties in southern Ohio. In the southern Appalachian Mountains.... blue mold is spreading, driven by persistently favorable weather conditions. Buncombe, Madison, Yancey, and Mitchell counties in western NC have confirmed blue mold, plus 4 counties in eastern TN and 1 county in extreme southwest VA. Further increases in disease activity are expected unless there is a significant change in the weather.
The Weather... A stationary front snakes its way from the mid-Atlantic through the northern Ohio Valley. Strong high pressure sits across the south while a weaker High lies over the Northeast. There's a good chance of late day showers and thunderstorms on Monday from the southern Appalachian Mountains through the mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Isolated to scattered activity elsewhere. The front will lie across the same areas on Tuesday. The best chances of rain will be in the Northeast and Southeast, with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms elsewhere. Expect similar weather on Wednesday for most areas before some drier weather arrives behind a cold front later this week.
The Forecast... Trajectories from the known sources move slowly east Monday and Tuesday, with areas east of the mountains potentially affected during the second day of airborne transport. Conditions for the various transport events will be mixed overall, and more favorable on Monday compared to Tuesday. On Monday.... Strongly Moderate Risk for the southern Appalachian Mountains. Moderate Risk for tobacco crops in the Ohio Valley, including southeast IN, southern OH, western WV, KY, and TN. Weakly Moderate Risk for central and eastern NC, southside VA, MD, and southeast PA. Low Risk otherwise. On Tuesday.... with the chances of rain decreasing in most areas... Moderate Risk for the southern Appalachian Mountains. Weakly Moderate Risk for the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic growing regions. Low Risk otherwise.
The sources in Cuba and southern Texas are Low Threats to other regions the next two days.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: Southern Appalachian Mountains
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
Papantla, Veracruz, Mexico
Tepic, Nayarit, Mexico
Pinar del Rio, Cuba
Southern Texas
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.