Forecast Notes - Friday, April 23: We have had some trouble with our national - international toll-free number for the past several weeks (1-888-835-2583). These problems have (hopefully!) been resolved and the number is back in service.
FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, April 30:
Disease Update - Friday, April 30: Blue mold has been confirmed in southern Texas. Dr. Bill Nesmith informs us that a team of plant breeders from the University of Kentucky observed wild tobacco growing in the region from Uvalde south to the Rio Grande River. They reported low populations of N. repanda. However, all of it was infected with blue mold and sporulating heavily. We will add a site from the Uvalde area to the forecasts on Monday. It will be combined with the one for Corpus Christi to describe the source region of southern Texas. We would have added the site today, but problems at Air Resources Laboratory interrupted the process before we could get the Uvalde trajectories generated.
Friday through Sunday: Currently, all sources are Low Threats, with Low Risk to the U.S. growing regions. Two transport events are notable. One is today's event from southern TX in which the trajectory moves near the western Ohio Valley growing areas during the second day of travel. Conditions are favorable for survivable transport of airborne spores. However, heavy rains beginning tonight are expected to wash out the bulk of any airborne spores before they can reach the Ohio Valley. The second event of note is Sunday's transport event out of western Cuba. Trajetories on Friday and Saturday move into the Gulf of Mexico. Much uncertainty remains with Sunday's trajectory. A cold front will be drawing near the eastern Gulf region on Sunday, and the speed and position of the front will play a large role in determining whether or not the transport event threatens U.S. crops. At this time it appears the threat will be Low, but there is still a lot of doubt concerning the nature of Sunday's event. We will monitor the situation closely and post updates this weekend if necessary.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: None
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
None
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.