Sunday Update: April 11, 2004: Conditions for the transport events of Saturday, April 10, and Sunday, April 11, were as previously expected. Sunny to at most partly cloudy skies were found both days near to and north of the western Cuba source region. Spores released from Cuba on Saturday and Sunday were scheduled to cross the northern FL / southern GA growing areas on Sunday night and Monday night, respectively. Given the expected spore death from solar exposure after release, each of these events would normally be Low Threats to the U.S. mainland.
HOWEVER..... we have seen in previous years how 2 or 3 consecutive events can pose a greater danger than there would be implied if the events were further separated in time. Conditions in northern FL and southern GA will likely be favorable for deposition and infection. With that in mind, I believe that these consecutive transport events from western Cuba pose a Moderate Threat to the U.S. mainland, with Moderate Risk of disease development for the growing areas of northern FL and southern GA.
The trajectories for Saturday and Sunday are given below. You will note that they continue through eastern sections of the Carolinas. The Carolinas are less likely to be affected than southern GA and northern FL. Plants there remain at Low Risk of disease development.
We will continue to monitor the situation closely as this active weather pattern impacts the Southeast. Forecasts will be posted as usual on Monday, April 12. We hope everyone has a safe and happy Easter Holiday !!
TK
FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, April 9:
Eastern Gulf of Mexico: Fair and dry weather Friday and Saturday will be followed by unsettled weather from Sunday into early next week, as a strong storm system develops in the west and moves into the southeast U.S.. Transport events on Saturday and Sunday may bring the threat of disease development to the United States. Saturday's trajectory from western Cuba moves through northern FL and southern GA after 36 hours, while Sunday's trajectory cross north-central FL after 24 hours. In both cases.... it appears at this time that any airborne spores will be killed by solar exposure near the source, meaning Low Risk for northern FL or southern GA. However, a good bit of uncertainty remains in the forecast, especially for Sunday. We will monitor these situations closely and post an updated forecast this weekend.
Other Areas: All other sources are Low Threats from Friday through Sunday.
TK
Areas at Strongly Moderate or HIGH Risk during the past week: None
Current Sources:
Previous Sources:
None
Local Weather in North Carolina is available from the WRAL-TV5 Weather Center, which also has links to other weather sites.
***** NOTE: These forecasts/outlooks only apply to disease development from airborne transport of spores!!! We do not have the capability to ascertain blue mold development by other means, such as transplanting of infected seedlings, nor will we attempt to do so. Please consult the Extension Service personnel in your area if you have concerns about these matters! *****
This service is provided by the North Carolina State University departments of Plant Pathology and Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences.