Blue Mold Forecasts for 2004

• Executive Summary
• Table of First Reports from each State/County

The scheduling and production of blue mold forecasts depend upon the spatial spread of source sites as the epidemic progresses. They will be issued three times per week and more frequently during peak epidemic spread. Each forecast includes descriptions of factors pertinent to the disease situation, a general outlook assessing the risk of disease development, and a map showing the flow away from an active area or region (i.e., a cluster of closely-grouped counties) with a single, centrally-located trajectory.

The maps show the motion of a floating particle that is released into the atmosphere on the date and time given in the second line of the map headings. The release time is in Universal Time on a 24-hour clock, and will be set to correspond to about 10AM local time. A black star (*) denotes the starting point for the trajectory (exact latitude and longitude are written along the left-hand side of the map). Information along the right-hand side of the map denotes the meteorological data used in the HY-SPLIT model and can be ignored for most purposes.

March 2004	April 2004
May 2004	June 2004
July 2004	August 2004

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Page last updated by Thomas Keever on August 9, 2004.